Coronavirus infection: Is there a North-South divide in England?

Coronavirus infection: Is there a North-South divide in England?



Currently, two-thirds of the population in northern England and a fifth of people in the Midlands are
facing extra restrictions to curb coronavirus infection rises.

But no local authority in England south of Solihull is currently imposing these measures.

So, is the virus spreading more in the North than the South?

What does the data show?
The main data we've got is the number of coronavirus cases picked up through testing.

This shows that, although London initially had the largest spike in Covid-19 cases in early April,
northern England has had the highest sustained rates of coronavirus infection since mid-April.

In the latest week, all regions in the Midlands and northern England had more than 36 cases
per 100,000 population, reaching as high as 135 per 100,000 in the North West and North East.

Hospital admissions
Hospitalisation rates of people with coronavirus for the week ending 27 September continue to
remain low compared with the initial spike, but once again demonstrate a marked regional
difference:

• Regions in southern England have 1.5 or fewer hospitalisation per 100,000 people in
  the week ending 13 September
  
• The North West had 5.5 per 100,000
  
• The Midlands had 3.8 per 100,000
  
• London had 2.2 per 100,000
  

The final bit of data we can look at is excess deaths, which shows the number of deaths above
average for the time of year.

Northern England has seen 22% more deaths than usual since mid-March, compared with 19%
additional deaths in the South.

However, it is London which saw the highest additional deaths at the height of the pandemic -
38% more than usual.

Why is the North being affected more?
There is no single answer.

First, the increases which happened over the summer could be linked to the timing of
the easing of restrictions in May.

At the time, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, described it as a "London-centric"
approach, because many of the regions had not yet seen the decreases in deaths and cases
experienced in the capital.

Second, there could be factors relating to demographics in northern England which have made
people there particularly vulnerable to the virus.

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